Yesterday Recap 14/9/26
Yesterday, USDTHB closed at 33.25 in the Thai market. Meanwhile, US equity markets (SPX, NDQ, and DJI) all declined overnight, reflecting concerns over the Fed and the AI sector. Rising tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran-UAE negotiations and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, also weighed on Risk Sentiment. This pushed Brent crude oil prices higher and contributed to a sharp increase in the VIX of nearly 8%, potentially increasing USD volatility.
Overall, the rise in global risk factors could lead to greater USDTHB volatility in the short term.
Fundamental 15/9/26
Key Events Today | Forecast | Previous
US: 19:15 ADP Employment Change Weekly | 12.00K
US: 19:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 14.10 | 20.60
Today's key US economic release is the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, which measures manufacturing activity in the New York region. A stronger-than-expected reading would indicate stronger manufacturing activity and could support the USD, while a weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the USD and potentially push USDTHB lower.
Meanwhile, ADP Employment Change Weekly is a labor-market indicator that can provide additional insight into the direction of US employment. Although it carries less weight than major labor-market reports, a stronger-than-expected reading could still provide some support for the USD.
In addition to US economic data, markets should monitor US Bond Yields, the DXY Index, gold prices, and foreign capital flows in the Thai market, as these factors could accelerate or limit USDTHB movements.
Overall, USDTHB is expected to trade within a range with a slight upside bias in the short term, with the main focus on USD direction, US Bond Yields, and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.
Technical – 1H
Bias: Bullish
The structure continues to form Higher Lows (HL), with the price holding above 33.21–33.25, creating potential for a test of 33.32 and 33.35. The 33.38 level is an important Swing High. A break below 33.15 would begin to invalidate the short-term bullish structure.
The broader market environment remains supportive of the USD, with US Yields rising above 5% and markets placing significant weight on the possibility of a Fed rate hike this week.
Resistance: 33.32 / 33.35 / 33.38
Support: 33.25 / 33.21 / 33.15
Target: 33.32 → 33.35 → 33.38
Cut Loss: 33.15
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