Hurricane Isaias

Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092026)

...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAIAS... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WARNING AREA OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 the center of Isaias was located near 23.7, -90.6 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 7a

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081154 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAIAS... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WARNING AREA OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 90.6W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, FL A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 90.6 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today followed by a turn northward on Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft Mobile Bay...5-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night. Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through today across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and far southwestern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday for eastern Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. SURF: Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Isaias intensifies to hurricane. And, judge orders Pike execution evidence preserved

People in the Gulf are preparing for bad weather this weekend after Isaias intensified into a hurricane. And, a judge has ordered Christa Pike's failed execution evidence be preserved.

Oct 8, 2026 · byNPR

Hurricane Isaias: Track the storm’s path online

Hurricane Isaias barrels toward the Gulf Coast. Here's how to track its forecasted path.

Oct 8, 2026 · byMashable

Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 208 WTNT44 KNHC 080856 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 Right after the previous advisory, Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft launched a dropsonde in the southwest quadrant of the storm, finding a 150 m boundary layer average wind of 76 kt, which was the basis for upgrading Isaias to a hurricane at 0330 UTC. Since that time, a NOAA-P3 aircraft has taken over the in-situ sampling of the hurricane, finding that Isaias continues to intensify. The Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) swaths still indicate some northward tilt with height, likely an impact of moderate westerly vertical wind shear that continues to impinge on the circulation, though the circulation is more aligned than in yesterday's mission. The peak TDR winds were up to 80 kt on the 500 m level, and experimental data that reduces the peak TDR winds to the 10 meter level support a maximum sustained wind of 70 kt this advisory. Aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias continues to maintain a east-northeastward heading at 060/8 kt. The most critical steering feature is a subtropical ridge centered east of the Bahamas that is building westward, leading to an enhancement of environmental southerly flow over the eastern Gulf. At the same time, a mid-level trough stretched across the northern Gulf coast will be reinforced by another impulse digging in from the Rocky Mountains, leading to a more amplified short-wave over east Texas. The net effect of these synoptic features should result in Isaias making a turn to the northeast and the north over the next 24-48 h. The guidance this cycle has not changed appreciably since the previous cycle, and there continue to be across-track differences between the further west physics-based models, and further east AI/Machine Learning-based models. The NHC track forecast remains very close to the prior one, and continues to lead more on the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) and HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) track aids, which have been our best performing track guidance this year. As mentioned previously, after Isaias moves inland, the guidance is showing a more subtle westward shift as Isaias is captured by the short wave trough to its west, leading in the formation of a potent cutoff low over the Tennessee valley as the tropical cyclone becomes post-tropical. The intensity forecast continues to be somewhat tricky. Isaias has been trying to become better vertically aligned despite dealing with around 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and an eyewall keeps coming and going in aircraft fixes. Other environmental factors (30 C sea-surface temperatures, sufficient deep-layer moisture) are quite favorable. Because the shear is not forecast to increase appreciably for the next 24 h, and because the hurricane has been intensifying despite the shear, significant intensification is still shown in the short-term, making Isaias just shy of major hurricane intensity in 24 h. This part of the intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance, close to the HCCA and GDMI intensity aids. In the final 12-24 h before Isaias makes landfall on the north Gulf coast, vertical wind shear ramps up to 40-50 kt, and this will likely impart some weakening. However, at the same time, the hurricane's wind field may become broader and more asymmetric as it begins to interact with the short-wave trough capturing it from the west. Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward speed of the storm. Key Messages: 1. Isaias is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Steinhatchee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County Line, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 4. Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 23.3N 91.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.2N 90.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 25.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 28.4N 87.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 31.0N 87.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/1800Z 33.7N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0600Z 36.0N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT ISAIAS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WARNING AREA OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 91.2W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, FL A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Isaias was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 91.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today followed by a turn northward on Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure measured recently by NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft Mobile Bay...5-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night. Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula later today. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through today across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle and far southwestern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday for eastern Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. SURF: Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092026)

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT ISAIAS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WARNING AREA OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 the center of Isaias was located near 23.3, -91.2 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Big Oil Begins Shutting In Gulf of Mexico Production

Shell and Chevron have started shutting in platforms in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching storm that could become a hurricane by the end of the week. Shell is evacuating all personnel from five platforms, including Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, and Appomattox, and shutting production activities there. Chevron, meanwhile, is doing the same at four offshore platforms in the Gulf, but leaving another five platforms operating normally. Earlier reports said BP was also evacuating staff from offshore platforms in the Gulf. Tropical storm Isaias…

Oct 8, 2026 · byOilPrice.com

Isaias surges towards Gulf Coast after becoming first hurricane of Atlantic season

Forecasters warned Isaias could deliver destructive hurricane-force winds

Oct 8, 2026 · byThe Independent

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 6a

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...MULTIPLE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAIAS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 91.7W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, FL A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 91.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued east-northeastward motion is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north later today and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (40 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The minimum central pressure measured recently by NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft Mobile Bay...5-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas on Friday and Friday night. Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula later today. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through today across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The tornado threat will persist into Saturday for eastern Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092026)

...MULTIPLE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAIAS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 the center of Isaias was located near 23.1, -91.7 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Isaias strengthens into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season

The National Hurricane Center said late Wednesday that the hurricane was on track to strike the U.S. Gulf Coast later in the week. It's expected to bring heavy rains and potentially flash flooding.

Oct 8, 2026 · byNPR

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Update Number

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 000 WTNT64 KNHC 080328 TCUAT4 Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 ...ISAIAS BECOMES A HURRICANE... Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates that Isaias has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure measured from another dropsonde launched in the eye was 982 mb (29.00 inches). SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 91.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin/Roberts

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092026)

...ISAIAS BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 10:30 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 the center of Isaias was located near 22.9, -91.9 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080253 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 Aircraft data and satellite trends indicate Isaias has continued intensifying this evening. The center of the tropical cyclone is embedded underneath a small central dense overcast with very cold tops associated with deep convection. Upper-level outflow is observed in all quadrants, though it remains somewhat restricted to the southwest due to moderate vertical wind shear. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicates the central pressure has fallen to 988 mb, and on the last fix they reported a circular eyewall open to the southwest. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. Aircraft fixes indicate the center is still moving toward the east-northeast (070/8 kt). The system is expected to accelerate northeastward tomorrow and then northward on Friday within the flow between a deepening trough over the south-central United States and a strengthening subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This steering pattern is forecast to bring the center of Isaias to the northern Gulf Coast late Friday night into early Saturday. There were no major changes to the guidance suite, with the AI-based models generally faster and farther right than the physics-based models. The NHC forecast continues to lean more heavily on the better-performing corrected consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) aids, remaining on the faster and right side of the guidance envelope. The inland track at 60-72 h was shifted westward as more models now show Isaias becoming captured by the cutoff low over the southeastern United States. Continued strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Isaias moves over very warm waters in a moist environment with moderate vertical wind shear. Given its small size and formative inner core, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, and the NHC forecast lies on the high end of the intensity guidance. The shear is predicted to markedly increase on Friday while Isaias approaches the northern Gulf Coast, but the system is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall. Gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and fast forward speed of the storm. Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued with this advisory for portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Key Messages: 1. Isaias is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Steinhatchee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi, and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County Line, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 4. Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 22.9N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 23.4N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 26.8N 87.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 29.6N 87.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 32.5N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 35.1N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092026)

...ISAIAS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 the center of Isaias was located near 22.9, -91.9 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Oct 8, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Shell, Chevron cut Gulf of Mexico output as Tropical Storm Isaias approaches

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 5a

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAIAS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 92.4W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis * East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere around the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 92.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued east-northeastward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, with further strengthening expected through Friday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft Mobile Bay...5-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions could begin in the Hurricane Watch area late Friday, and tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas by midday Friday. Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan. From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero TORNADOES: Tornado potential will increase as rain bands accompanying Isaias approach the northeastern Gulf Coast Friday evening and overnight. This potential will spread inland on Saturday as Isaias continues northward. SURF: Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Oct 7, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092026)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAIAS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 the center of Isaias was located near 22.8, -92.4 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Oct 7, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Isaias expected to become hurricane before hitting U.S. Gulf Coast, forecasters say

Tropical Storm Isaias formed Wednesday in the warm waters off eastern Mexico and forecasters predicted it will quickly strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season before striking the U.S. Gulf Coast later in the week.

Oct 7, 2026 · byCBC News

Tropical Storm Isaias Set to Be First Atlantic Hurricane of 2026 Season

Tropical Storm Isaias is set to become the basin’s first hurricane of the season, bringing life-threatening rain and storm surge to the Gulf Coast.

Oct 7, 2026 · byWIRED

Hurricane Isaias: Category 3 Threat to Gulf & Supply Chain

Hurricane Isaias is intensifying in the Gulf, threatening to become a Category 3 storm and unleash significant damage across the Southeast. We break down the storm’s projected path, its potential impact on critical infrastructure like refineries and ports, and what freight and logistics operators can expect for trucking capacity and diesel prices. Stay ahead of […] The post Hurricane Isaias: Category 3 Threat to Gulf & Supply Chain appeared first on FreightWaves .

Oct 7, 2026 · byFreightWaves

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 592 WTNT44 KNHC 072049 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 Satellite and aircraft data show that Isaias continues to strengthen. GOES-19 imagery indicates that a central dense overcast has formed, and the system has become more symmetric than this morning. The peak NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 700-mb winds were 61 kt, with the pressure dropping to 994 mb. The initial intensity is set to 55 kt as a reflection of this data. Isaias is basically on track, moving east-northeast at 7 kt. There is no change to the synoptic reasoning as a deepening trough along the northwestern Gulf Coast and a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause the system to move faster to the northeast tomorrow and northward on Friday. As long as the cyclone remains intact, it makes physical sense that the system will move on the faster and eastward side of the guidance due to the stronger shear Isaias should encounter near landfall. Thus, the new forecast is adjusted slightly to the east, closer to the AI-based and corrected-consensus models. NOAA radar data (P3-TDR) show that the system is experiencing some southwesterly shear, with tilt analyses displaying the mid-level circulation displaced 5-10 n mi to the northeast of the low-level center. This structure seems sufficient for further intensification given a continuation of similar low or moderate shear and very warm SSTs in a very humid environment. Models are fairly consistent about the shear increasing on Friday, but almost all guidance still shows a category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall. While the regional hurricane models have generally come down on the peak intensity this cycle, it is unknown whether this is the start of a real trend, and we would prefer to see more than one guidance cycle before making any adjustments. The new forecast is close to the previous one, near the high side of the model suite. Key Messages: 1. Isaias is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect from The Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. Residents in the watch area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. The risk of damaging hurricane-force winds is increasing over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 4. Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 22.7N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 24.1N 90.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 25.8N 88.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 28.1N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 31.0N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 34.0N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1800Z 37.5N 84.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Oct 7, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center

Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092026)

...ISAIAS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING, FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 the center of Isaias was located near 22.7, -92.9 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Oct 7, 2026 · byNational Hurricane Center